Curriculum
- 5 Sections
- 25 Lessons
- 2 Days
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- Role of Forecasting in SCM5
- 1.1Concepts: Forecast Accuracy, Bias, Error Metrics
- 1.2Keywords: MAPE, MAD, Forecast Value Add (FVA), Demand Sensing
- 1.3Situational Focus: Misalignment between sales forecast and supply plan
- 1.4Real-life Insight: High forecast error led to dead stock accumulation
- 1.5Exercise: Forecast accuracy vs bias heatmap analysis
- Time-Series Quantitative Forecasting5
- 2.1Concepts: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Trend/Seasonality
- 2.2Keywords: Holt-Winters, Decomposition, Smoothing Constants
- 2.3Situational Focus: Seasonal SKU demand forecasting for apparel
- 2.4Real-life Insight: Retail chain using 3-model hybrid for monthly planning
- 2.5Exercise: Excel-based forecast using 3 time-series models on sales data
- Causal & Statistical Methods5
- 3.1Concepts: Regression, Correlation, External Drivers
- 3.2Keywords: Multivariate Forecasting, Lag Effects, Leading Indicators
- 3.3Situational Focus: Weather-driven or promotion-driven demand
- 3.4Real-life Insight: Beverage brand’s forecast improvement using rainfall index
- 3.5Exercise: Run a simple regression forecast in Excel using macroeconomic drivers
- Qualitative & Consensus Forecasting5
- 4.1Concepts: Sales Judgement, Delphi, Historical Override, Consensus Process
- 4.2Keywords: S&OP, Bottom-up/Top-down Alignment, Collaborative Forecasting
- 4.3Situational Focus: Skewed forecast due to sales optimism bias
- 4.4Real-life Insight: Chemicals firm aligning forecast with distributor inputs
- 4.5Exercise: Cross-functional forecast reconciliation role-play
- Forecasting Under Uncertainty & Events5
- 5.1Concepts: Outliers, New Product Forecasting, Scenario-based Forecasts
- 5.2Keywords: Market Disruption, Black Swan, Demand Shaping
- 5.3Situational Focus: Pandemic-like demand disruption planning
- 5.4Real-life Insight: Scenario forecasts helped a pharma firm plan for 3 demand tiers
- 5.5Exercise: Demand shock simulation & response modelling
Keywords: MAPE, MAD, Forecast Value Add (FVA), Demand Sensing
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